Trump is operating simultaneously on the Turkish axis and the Saudi axis; regarding the Saudi axis, Donald Trump demonstrated an extroverted and arrogant political show in the Gulf this week, which included a strange gift of a private jet. Trump and the Saudis hid both the main agreement of the visit, which is the agreement to quote oil prices in dollars (which we reported on here exclusively last week), which was first signed about a year after Richard Nixon's resignation, about fifty years ago, and was renewed this week. And the payment that Trump was required to pay for the plane, for the spectacular white marble spectacle that caught his eye, for the honor of the kings, for the huge investments in the US economy and, above all, for saving the dollar as the world currency; The payment required of Trump is, in our opinion, the reduction of Israel and the acceptance of a Palestinian "almost state" as a documented policy of his administration. The agreement regarding an "almost state" for the Palestinians was reached between President Biden and Saudi Arabia at the end of Biden's administration, and the entity to be established was defined as "less than a state but more than an authority." On the Turkish axis, Trump is convinced that Erdogan is his friend, but Erdogan has no friends. Next month at the NATO conference in The Hague, Erdogan will, in our estimation, demand Israel's condemnation and warning regarding both Syria and Gaza and will expect Trump to cash the check. The chance that such a demand, if it were to be made, would be accepted as a NATO decision is practically slim, since NATO decisions must be made with the consent of all members, but in a declarative and image-oriented sense, the chance of success is excellent. And only the government of zealots in Israel and the journalists who work on its behalf in the Israeli journalistic arena apparently do not understand the depth of the harm the Israeli government has done to the State of Israel, In light of developments in the Middle East following the prolongation of the war in Gaza, and the harm to tens of thousands of innocent Palestinians.
Donald Trump convinced the Saudis to extend the agreement to quote oil prices in dollars to stabilize the American currency as the world currency. How much Trump needed this was made clear this week by the Moody's rating agency's decision to lower the United States' perfect rating (triple A) by one notch. If the dollar ceases to be the accepted standard in world trade, and the Chinese yuan takes its place, interest rates in the United States will rise, and America could see a recession, inflation, against the backdrop of a large multi-year deficit; A combination that could lead Moody's and the other agencies to continue the trend of downgrading the United States' rating, and to a domestic American and global crisis, which could raise China and the yuan.
To cover up the Gulf states' demand for payment from Donald Trump, the demand from the US was formulated today by Egyptian President al-Sisi, and not by a Saudi, Qatari, or Emirati representative. Al-Sisi called on Trump today at a conference in Baghdad to "use all the efforts and pressure necessary to achieve a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, thereby paving the way for a serious political process in which he acts as a mediator and sponsor, which will lead to a final arrangement to achieve lasting peace, similar to the historic role the US played in achieving peace between Egypt and Israel in the 1970s".
Following Trump's momentary success in his campaign, and mainly due to the risk of the Russian Chinese axis embodied in this success, China and Russia have been on their toes, and Russia announced on Saturday that it is convening an Arab Russian conference in Moscow in October. The fanatical government in Israel, compared to the frenzy in the political world of the Middle East, is freezing up, and is increasing the attack on Gaza, instead of stopping the drift, and primarily the war. See today for more in the main story.
To tighten the dollar to the global trade arena as the world currency, and to promote the US economy, Trump is trying to turn the two political axes in the Middle East into one. He wants Turkey, which has established an axis with Egypt, Hamas, and is trying to annex Jordan, and in the future probably Iran, to unite it with Saudi Arabia's axis with the Gulf states, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority. For the sake of this mission of a Middle East under American control, Trump's analysis had to give up on Israel, and Trump gave it up, at least for the time being, without blinking. In the past, we predicted here that Donald Trump would turn against Israel. The turnabout occurred this week, but as mentioned, the Middle East has so far been big for the US, and in our assessment, it will also be big for Trump, despite the hoo-ha he has made in recent weeks from the Oval Office with Netanyahu to the White Marble Room in the Gulf with his new friends.
According to the visit to the Gulf, which left Israel out of the political picture, and according to Trump's meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu in Washington about a month ago, Israel is planned to be isolated in such a way that in order to exist, it will need the Middle East axis to extend its protection to it, and it will be forced to give up its demands; and if the axis does not extend its protection to it – then the US will do it in the way that Trump has already practiced on Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office, according to which he says what to do and Netanyahu says amen. He offers help with Erdogan, to clarify his great influence and his plans, and Netanyahu is silent as a fish. A surprise.
In this arena too, we do not expect Trump to succeed, because Israel is not Benjamin Netanyahu, but rather a community that is thousands of years old, with great endurance and intellectual power, and above all, it is a community that has formulated a clear and concise outline for its existence and values over thousands of years; and in this sense, neither a person nor an era can bend the Israeli public.
China does not talk much, and it is carefully examining Donald Trump's moves. In the meantime, it has hinted that the agreement at the San Francisco conference between President Xi and Biden came to an end when the Chinese president met with Putin on Victory Day over Nazi Germany in Moscow. May 9 is also the day on which the political poles of the East and the West were born in the political world.