Itzik Sudri, the mythical spokesperson of Shas, told us on Friday that the position of Shas is unequivocal, a government with Benjamin Netanyahu, or election number six. There is no middle ground. To my question if Aryeh Deri said the things in this decisive way, Soderi said absolutely yes, Deri said it in his voice. Indeed, Deri said things that this is their meaning. But did he leave himself an escape hatch, to form another government, in case Netanyahu really does not bring 61, and the choice is another coalition or sixth elections?

In our opinion, Deri does not need an escape option like others. Simply because he has the power to go back 180 degrees on his positions, and with his rhetorical power also to escape the expected attack on him following the turnaround. Deri's public is also not as vindictive towards political maneuvers as the secular public, and there is a complete separation between the political life and the moral life of the hour. One thing Deri can't escape so far. from his Jewish mystical beliefs. Unless there have been changes in him since the day he went to prison and on which he also asked Rabbi Shach to forgive him, because the Rabbi was angry with him, and because the Rabbi expressed his anger in kfeda that he threw at Deri.

Deri navigates his entire public life between the ultra-Orthodox whom he represents, and the non-Orthodox from whom he draws his political inspiration; This fight against the non-Orthodox regarding their non-Orthodox views that may disrupt his public life, enriches him, and sharpens his political position. From this struggle he is fed publicly, and the struggle still enriches him and his ideas; From the political sophistication that Deri drew from the arena of non-Orthodox politics, he even sharpened his political sophistication. In this sense, Deri is close to the non-Orthodox Israeli public, almost like any non-Orthodox Israeli.

On the other hand, Aryeh Deri distances himself politically and separates his public from the non-Orthodox public, both to preserve his political power, but also to express in a public sense his differentiated status towards this public, and of course to atone for his alleged wrongdoing towards Rabbi Shach.

But when Israeli national public sentiment prevails over him again, and when the political picture makes it clear to him that he must make an extraordinary decision in order to survive, Deri may bring the two communities closer together, thereby reducing the communal isolation of the eastern ultra-Orthodox community; However, in 1990 Aryeh Deri realized the damage that might be caused to him as a result of his momentary rapprochement with the Labor public, and might be caused to his political power, and he withdrew almost immediately from the national sentiment, and also from the momentary need to survive (in accordance with Rabbi Ovadia Yosef's decision). At the end of the move, which Yitzchak Rabin called the smelly maneuver, Rabbi Shach spoke in the heart of Tel Aviv about rabbit eaters in kibbutzim; And of all the possible damages, this damage of the kfeda that Rabbi Shach allegedly imposed on him after his speech, is the one that left a mark on Aryeh Deri throughout his political life; He had no legal qualms then, since in his own eyes he was innocent.

Considering these things, the question arises as to whether Aryeh Deri, to the extent that the political conditions in the current elections oblige him, will once again allow himself a rapprochement between the public, this time of Yair Lapid, and the Mizrahi ultra-Orthodox public. In our opinion, the answer to this is positive. Our reasoning is that there is no orthodox figure now like the resolute figure of Rav Shach, who would differ so blatantly in the sense of fundamental and essential values ​​between the two communities, probably because the times have changed. This absence, and the passage of years and eras, may lead many in the ultra-Orthodox public to think that integration is now not impossible as it was during the time of Rabbi Shach, and therefore the kfeda attached to it is not as valid as it was then. Another reasoning is that this time the ultra-Orthodox Ashkenazi may themselves want a deal with Yair Lapid's public, even if they call it Gantz's public, and this, along with the other reasons, may convince Deri that he must act.

In our estimation, Benjamin Netanyahu will not be able to form a government even after the fifth election. In our view, there is something deeper in the Israeli public's vote than a lack of thousands of votes in favor of Netanyahu. The Israeli public told Netanyahu four times that they would not let him form a government. It sounds almost impossible for a public that has millions of items that are not connected to each other to have a public position that can be attributed to the whole, but this is exactly the meaning of a cultured national public; That's exactly how this mystery works. Therefore, our assessment is that this will not change this time either since there has been no change in Netanyahu and Likud that would cause the public to change its position.

A different kind of Deri will face this decision. It will not be the same political youth who stood there in 1990. In the mystical sense of faith, this is indeed the same Deri of Rabbi Shak, who is afraid that Kfeda may come upon him from above, from the place where the rabbi is now standing; But this is not the same period, and these are not the same conditions, and today, as mentioned, even Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox can think about integration (only in a certain sense, and certainly not in terms of a change of culture), and not only think, but they may even be ahead of Deri in their way to cut a coalition with Bnei Gantz. And I do not say Benny Gantz out of error or inattention, since in my estimation Deri would not agree to crown Lapid prime minister even today. If Netanyahu does not bring 61, Deri, in my estimation, will enter negotiations with Gantz and Lapid, but will condition Shas joining on the fact that the prime minister for four years, and without rotation, will be Benny Gantz or even Gideon Sa'ar, and not Yair Lapid. Of course, if the Likud decides that another leader from the Likud will form a government, and not Netanyahu, then everything written above is unnecessary, since Deri will go with him to the coalition.