Iran tested through Jihad if Israel was weakened

The end of the era of engineered wars: Iran practiced political and military planning for the next war, Israel conducted the previous war

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Did Benjamin Netanyahu understand that the current event with Gaza, even if it ends before the parade of flags on Thursday, is essentially different from all the thousands of days of battle, operations and wars that have been here since the 1982 war? We don't know the answer, but the way he conducted himself in the last few days made it clear that Netanyahu understood that something new was in the air; He cut himself off from the fanatics who, with his stupid help, brought Israel to the brink of civil war, a rotten fruit that Israel has now reaped, after the Iranian front concluded from the events that Israel had weakened, and set out to check it. Nasrallah is now saying these things openly, in clear language without any inhibitions. In addition, Netanyahu surrounded himself with a limited number of reasonable leaders, and he even cut himself off from Aryeh Deri, to whom he was connected politically as well as intellectually, after he was stunned by the destruction that the two almost brought together on Israel, causing each of them separately to distance themselves from the other. A Shas source told us this weekend that Aryeh Deri is now frustrated, because his non-participation in an Israeli event as important as a war has weakened him, and weakens his hold on the Shas, and weakens the Shas.

On Friday morning, the chairman of Yesh Atid was interviewed by Kan Bet, and said that he knew when to get out of the round with Islamic Jihad, and he advises the prime minister to get out at the right time, which has already arrived, because the goals have been achieved. These words of Lapid characterize the smugness of the entire political system, center right and left, which is running the previous war, which was like all the wars and days of battle that have been since 1982, in which the days of a campaign that were pre-engineered in Kirya are counted, objectives and a bank of goals are formulated, and then an army of military speakers disperses in the television studios to count down the hours, and check how much credit is left in the bank of goals, and when Egypt will announce that The formula was found.

But the Middle Eastern arena is now different, and it is reflected in the current micro with the Jihad: Iran and Hezbollah established the new arena with patience and wisdom, bringing distant entities closer together, and they are making it homogeneous from Tehran to Kfar Saba. Last week they went out to test if the prototype worked. The murderous organization and state have not yet achieved this goal, but they are getting closer to it and continue to strive, and to that end, as mentioned, they even opened fire through jihad: A sort of tool test or dress rehearsal or first fire test of the prototype.

Israel believes that it was she who initiated the current battle against Jihad and opened fire, but this is only because she ignores the current war and relives the previous war; The one who opened fire is the Jihad, as part of Iran's plan to bring the decisive moment, at a time that suits it. And since no one has yet been born with the prophetic ability to know what the right timing is, Iran had to check it, and so it did. A few days before the Jihad's shooting in Israel, we quoted Nasrallah here as a harbinger of what was expected by saying that "the war has already begun"

Israel lived through the previous war, not because it does not notice the essence of the events, after all Israel has the best intelligence services in the world, and the best minds are sitting on the issue, including Netanyahu and his team whose judgment now seems to be upgraded compared to the last few months. Israel in the previous war because it understands that the meaning of the transition to the arena of the next war that Iran is preparing for it, could be a destructive and long transition and in which lies an existential threat to the project of returning to Zion over its two hundred years, and this is a war that there is no way to engineer in the towers of the Kirya.

But the IDF now simply needs to prepare for the next war, not the previous one, and the first and necessary and practical step after last week's Iranian initiative is to inspect the warehouses, renew the existing ones and stockpile ammunition again after the USA transferred ammunition warehouses from Israel to Ukraine. And after the current battles have taken down the inventory on the shelves, and to refine and expand the defense production, and to adapt it for the next war; In addition, and in contrast to the political system that lost the north, to trust in the wonderful Israeli public, who will rush to its ranks fearlessly and ready to defend Israel just like in the past.

This public will undoubtedly close the open account with the fanatical political system that brought Israel to the brink of destruction, in its desperate attempt to overthrow the regime. Proof of this is that yesterday, despite the cancellation of the protest due to the fighting, thousands took to the streets, and made the point clear: as we wrote here last week, in our estimation this public will lead to the formation of a state commission of inquiry to investigate the attempt to transform the regime in Israel from a vibrant and wonderful democracy into a dark and criminal religious dictatorship.

Nasrallah is counting the minutes to open fire and fulfill his murderous essence; On Friday he described again, and glorified, the front he established with Iran; Two weeks ago he described the command room he established with his colleague Khamenei, which includes all the important Palestinian organizations including parts of Fatah, and even the Houthis from Yemen who have the power to provide another ballistic firing angle towards Israel; Nasrallah also said in his speech on Friday that Hezbollah will not hesitate to act to support In Gaza, he did not mean the city but the bloodthirsty terrorist organizations Hamas and Jihad.

Hezbollah designates Syria to be the battlefield against Israel, also so that it can be Iran's logistical back, as well as to create a significant military sequence from Tehran to the Mediterranean Sea. This sequence has not yet been completed, and Hezbollah wants for the time being to leave Lebanon out of the war, but to take Lebanon out of the destruction equation, Nasrallah will probably need a more significant lever of pressure on Israel than detailing his heart's desires. Here we reported on the complex that Hezbollah established in Syria, in Homs, to launch missiles and UAVs. In the media, the attack on this site about two weeks ago was attributed to Israel. It can be assumed that Hezbollah has more than one site in Syria, since Hezbollah armed the site in Homs with missiles and UAVs that were stored in West Beirut, and when there are warehouses, it is likely that there are also sites, and not a single site.

Reinforcement of the assumption that Iran and Hezbollah designate Syria to be their main battleground against Israel was received last week, in two events: the first is the visit of the Syrian Chief of Staff to Tehran and his meeting with the most senior officer in the complex Iranian military system; the Iranian officer announced that Iran would help strengthen of the Syrian army (see a separate news item on this). In our estimation, the Iranian promise concerns both the arming and training of the Syrian army, and especially its subjugation to the Iranian military system, although Syria's rejoining the Arab League may prevent this intention. The second event was the visit of President Iran Raisi in Damascus, and the things he said to Assad, which we reported here: from the leak of a senior member of Raisi's entourage to Hezbollah media, it appears that Raisi told Assad that Syria could not remove Iran from Syria by a unilateral decision.

The move that prevented the battle with the Jihad from turning into a war, and perhaps even developing into a regional war, was Hamas's debating whether to enter the battles; The debate was resolved by Hamas's decision not to enter the war. Hamas has admittedly included itself recently, in the command room of Iran and Hezbollah, and this was also evidenced by the permission it received from Hezbollah to shoot from Lebanon at Israel, but Hamas has an internal Palestinian interest which is an interest that is at the heart of the organization's essence, and therefore when this interest contradicts the regional Iranian interest, the organization Hamas has chosen in the past and will probably choose in the future its Palestinian interest; The organization sees itself as the legal Palestinian ruler, after the parliamentary elections held in 2006, and its victory in them, and all its actions stem from this recognition; This is the reason, for example, that on the eve of Operation Alot Hashachar, Hamas is the one who, in our estimation, handed over the head of the jihad in the West Bank to the IDF (see our exclusive publication on this in previous issues), after realizing that the jihad was striving to step into his shoes as ruler of the Gaza Strip, and the jihad Doing it with the help of Iran.

This extradition of the senior Jihad led to the Alot Hashachar operation, and to the defeat that the Jihad suffered. In recent months, Hamas believes that Iran may improve its chances of raiding Ramallah and replacing the central Palestinian government, and it therefore agreed to be part of the Iranian effort against Israel. If Hamas believed that the current move of Jihad and Iran could bring Ramallah into its hands right now, it would, in our estimation, have joined the war. But Hamas currently does not think so. In this regard, it should be said that this weakness of Hamas, or its desire to maintain its essence, may be an important fact that Israel must consider, in its way of separating Hamas from Iran and Hezbollah. The first time that Israel can practice this thought is the parade of flags that will be held on Thursday in Jerusalem.

Egypt had a hard time getting a ceasefire this time, we don't know if it happened under pressure from Iran. But we know that Iran sent the Syrian foreign minister to Egypt about two weeks ago for the first time in more than a decade. We don't know what the two talked about, but we do know that Egypt seemed less determined to achieve a ceasefire this time than it had been in the past. Perhaps this is Israeli sensitivity, but Iran's moves with Saudi Arabia, which is a Sunni ally of Egypt, and towards Jordan (about which we wrote here two weeks ago about the new contacts between Jordan and Iran), another Sunni ally of Egypt, will undoubtedly cause, if not cause Already, for Egypt to re-examine its relations in the Middle East, and its relations with Iran. Israeli disregard of this would be a mistake.