The crisis between Iran and Israel over the siege and blockade of the Ali Taher Ridge has been prevented from escalating for the time being through direct negotiations between the two countries mediated by Qatar. We do not know what Israel received as a result of the agreement between the two sides, in addition to control of the site, and we do not know how long the negotiations lasted; we do know that the the survivors of the siege were released. The freed were forced to leave behind the bodies of the besieged who were killed during the IDF's siege and blockade of the Hezbollah site. On the way to the agreement Iran obscured the signs of negotiations with Israel by issuing a diversionary statement stating that it would attack Israel if Israel attacked Ali Taher. Following the Iranian diversion threat, the Israeli Defense Minister issued his response to the diversion and threatened Iran.
We do not know whether negotiations have continued or will continue on other matters between the two countries, and we do not know whether the agreements in the negotiations include a ceasefire in the ridge area. Hezbollah did not stop the fire and may have been excluded from the agreements.
In our assessment, a ceasefire has not been reached, and the fire could still flare up. Last week, we called on Israel to end the war and prepare the IDF for the new Middle East that Turkey is establishing through an alliance with Iran and Pakistan as a result of the extension of the war after the IDF had already defeated Hamas in January 2024.
In our assessment, a Turkish surprise attack on Israel could be the third devastating surprise, similar to the surprise attacks by Egypt and Hamas in 1973 and 2023, and the IDF must therefore prepare for a Turkish-Iranian surprise attack backed by Pakistan.
In our call, we assessed the urgent need for thousands of modern tanks and the establishment of a coastal force to prevent the landing of a regular army from the sea, which is one of Turkey's capabilities. We also assess that Israel should close the eastern border against an invasion by Shiite militias from Iraq through Jordan. To this end, a respite from the war is needed.
The need to prepare the IDF is increasing In our assessment of Israel's duty to destroy the Iranian regime that set out on October 7th to destroy it (see our exclusive archived headline on this on October 8th, 2023).