Iran increased the stakes recently, when it sharpened its demands for signing the nuclear agreement, and it even threatens to advance the production of an atomic bomb if attacked, In addition, its intelligence minister announced yesterday that Iran will take revenge on the Kurds in Iraq who, according to him, cooperate with Israel against Iran; Hamas has also raised the stakes when it works to occupy key positions in the West Bank, for example at the universities of Bir Zeit and Anjah, and tries to reduce the hold of Fatah and the Tanzim in the West Bank, and is taunting Israel with the new terrorist strategy in the West Bank (see a report here last week); and now also the third vertex in the triangle, Hezbollah, is upping the ante, when it states that half of the Israeli gas field Karish belongs to it and Lebanon. This assertion alone is no different from the position of many Lebanese, including the Lebanese army, but this time it comes with a date for the confrontation. Hizbullah, the third side in the regional axis, even pointed out the date for the conflict – in September. Hizbullah identifies his position as stated above as the position of the Lebanese army which stated in the past that the line for them includes half of the Karish field.
Hezbollah begins this move when the Lebanese Prime Minister is its ally, and an ally of Syria, which is an essential part of the regional axis established by Iran. It is therefore possible that Hizbollah's statement and setting a date for the conflict is coordinated with the other components of the axis Iran, Syria, Hamas, and the Prime Minister of Lebanon. This development happens a few days after the Khamenei Putin meeting. Even if the Lebanese government does not cooperate with it, Hezbollah's media body attacks previous governments of Lebanon that, according to it, gave up assets in Lebanon's economic sea, and warns against this.
Israel determines the border of its economic waters, according to which the Karish gas field is in its territory, according to a line perpendicular to its border point with Lebanon. This line leaves Karish within the territory of Israel. Lebanon, on the other hand, continues the border line between Israel and Lebanon that was established in the 1949 armistice agreement (and which is a copy of the partition agreement between Great Britain and France) in a straight line into the sea, and thus half of Karish is in its territory. Hezbollah states that the measuring point from which Israel begins, three islands to the west of Rosh Hankara, the most significant of which is the uninhabited island of Techelet, is not acceptable since Techelet is not an island at all, and it is covered by water in the winter.
Hezbollah obviously knows that the mention of a date of conflict is another stage in the tensions between political entities, and is equivalent, for example, to the difference between level 3 and level 4 in a travel warning. And yet he does it. It is possible that this time, Hezbollah's motive for heating up the region is coordination regarding the date with Iran and Hamas.
Israel and Lebanon twice came to the brink of a peace agreement, which was torpedoed by Syria. Once in 1983, after the First Lebanon War, and the second time at the Madrid Conference. In both cases the Lebanese parliament did not ratify the agreements reached. Most likely, in an atmosphere of peace, it would be possible to reach a quick agreement on the maritime border, but in the current atmosphere, in which Lebanon actually has two governments, one in Beirut and the other in the Dahaiah district, it will be more difficult.
Talks are now taking place between Israel and Lebanon on the maritime border, and the ball is in the hands of Israel, which recently received Lebanon's proposal for a compromise from the Americans and must respond. This morning YNET publishes that Israel has sent its response to the Americans; The question now is not whether the Lebanese government will accept Israel's proposal, but whether Hezbollah and the Lebanese government will accept it.
The date of the September confrontation comes from Hezbollah a few days after Putin's meeting with Khamenei and raises the question of whether Russia needs to divert the West's gaze from Ukraine to the Middle East.