By Meir Gurno our commentary on military and security matters

In our estimation, Hezbollah planned an attack in the Zareet area. Such a thing could of course be considered a distraction, compared to the real intentions of the attack that Hezbollah planned against Israel. Nasrallah's words on Friday according to which Hezbollah is threatening war, and from our report here about a month ago according to which Nasrallah said that the war against Israel has already begun, shows that, at least on paper, Hezbollah does have war plans. The intention of an attack in the Zareet area, in this context, could be an attempt to hide, for example, plans for a combined air and ground attack from Syria, from the Homs area and from the Golan Heights area. Here we reported on the medium-range missile site that Hezbollah maintains in the Homs area, and that the organization intends to turn Syria into the main battleground against Israel.

3 recent events in the Zareet area indicate that Hezbollah wants the IDF to assess that this is Hezbollah's preferred area for conducting its attack. The first event was the dispatch of the terrorist to the Megiddo junction about three months ago. The terrorist crossed the fence in the Zareet area. The area northeast of Zareet was, in the seventies and eighties, the land of persecution of the north (literally the land of persecution described in Bikaat Hayarden) and there were many infiltrations attempts by Palestinian squads during this period. It is a mountainous and forested area, suitable for guerrilla warfare, but not suitable for a mass invasion by ground forces. The soil structure is rocky, and it can on the other hand be suitable for cutting durable tunnels. In this area, there is the seam line in the wall being built, and it is possible that Hezbollah is using the point of completion of the construction for its propaganda.

The second incident was this week, when Hezbollah launched a drone that crossed the border in the Zreet area. The third event is the show that Hezbollah held this week for journalists in southern Lebanon, in which it simulated an attack on Israel. The route of the area where the mock attack against Israel was carried out is the same as the route northeast of Zareet. As mentioned, this is a forested mountainous area, which is suitable for guerilla warfare as well as tunneling. Since Nasrallah wishes for the defeat of Israel on the battlefield, and since the chance that this can be done through guerrilla warfare, including an invasion from tunnels, is zero, our assessment is that the intention of an attack in the Zareet area may be a distraction from Hezbollah's true intention. See the editorial "Nasrallah tries to make Sadat".