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09.06.2024

Hamas is trying to get an American guarantee

Standing in place - Hamas's agreement to the cease-fire, which includes a vague cease-fire clause; The organization asked Israel for clarification, and at the same time seeks an American guarantee to stop the war, in light of the refinement of the clause on the continuation of the war in the Israeli government

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A Palestinian source in Ramallah said that Hamas is seeking clarification regarding the dates for the withdrawal of the IDF and the methods of releasing the Palestinian prisoners. America will not give Hamas a guarantee to end the war, but President Biden made it clear in his speech that the negotiations to end the war will continue even if the parties do not reach an agreement. This statement by Biden means the end of the war, and it delays the move again. This statement even encouraged Hamas to again demand an American guarantee to end the war, and it also caused Israel to imply that there is a gap between Biden's version and Israel's agreement. We cannot estimate the effect of rescuing the hostages from Gaza, because there are balanced considerations for two conflicting options, Sinwar may indeed feel that the IDF is closing in on him, and his time will be reduced if he does not immediately go to a ceasefire. On the other hand, the loss of the victory image of Hamas as the one who held out, may activate the "better to die than surrender" mechanism in Sinwar, and lead the Middle East to the abyss.

 

 By Mati Cohen

 

Hamas seeks to gain time, mainly to obtain an American guarantee in the spirit of what President Biden mentioned in his speech, according to which the negotiations to end the war will continue even if the parties do not reach agreements; We previously reported that the ceasefire would be an agreed platform for negotiations on the cessation of the war ("the de facto cessation of the war, and not its de jure cessation"), and President Biden in his speech refined this essential component of the negotiations between Israel and Hamas, in such a way that the negotiations between the parties will continue As long as it takes, until an agreement is reached; in other words, Biden has determined the de facto way to end the war. As we previously reported, Netanyahu agreed to obfuscate the clause of the cessation of war in such a way as to express its de facto cessation, and its de jure non-cease, but Israel did not agree to Biden's blanket wording according to which the negotiations would be permanent, which makes the second phase of the ceasefire agreement, the cessation of the war, Under being a platform for negotiations on the end of the war.

To obtain an American guarantee to end the war, in the spirit of Biden's words, Hamas is now gaining time through the clarifications it requested from Israel in recent days and these are:

  1. An unequivocal answer regarding the release of Marwan Barghouti and Hassan Salame
  2. When will be the Israeli withdrawal from each of the areas 
  3. Exact dates for the release of the Palestinian prisoners
  4. Details of the Israeli veto regarding prisoners and negotiations about it
  5. Where will the Palestinian prisoners be released (to the West Bank, Gaza, abroad) and negotiations to complete this section.

Yahya Sinwar, according to the source, is also impressed by Hassan Nasrallah's relative success in conducting a war of attrition against Israel, over time, without causing an all-out war. See an expansion on this in the main story today.