The information about the terrorists of the Islamic Jihad in Jenin was apparently transferred to Israel through the security coordination with the Palestinians, by the Palestinian security mechanisms in Jenin. Behind the transfer of the information to Israel, in our estimation, are factions of Fatah whose loyalty is not necessarily to Abu Mazen. A Palestinian source told us on Friday that Israel is working with these mechanisms directly.

Regarding the loyalty of the factions that are behind the transmission of the news: they are loyal to Marwan Barghouti and Jibril Rajoub; Since these two Palestinian figures are now working in cooperation with Hamas to overthrow the government in Ramallah, we estimate that behind the transmission of the news are not only the Palestinian factions that are loyal to Rajoub and Barghouti, but also the Hamas organization. In the past we have already noted that Hamas's struggle to replace the Palestinian government and to recognize the 2006 elections in which it won a majority, and that one of the stations of this struggle of Hamas is the attempt to weaken the Islamic Jihad which is getting very close to Iran and threatens Hamas in the Gaza Strip, influences Hamas to besiege the fire Against Israel, especially in Gaza. Hamas leaves it to Israel to do the work of weakening the Islamic Jihad for it. In this sense, surprisingly, a temporary identity of interests was created between Hamas and Israel. To this it should be added that the governor of the Jenin region is Akram Rajoub, Jibril Rajoub's cousin.

In the last year the Islamic Jihad has radicalized its position according to which its main affinity is not a Palestinian nation-state, but a national entity that will be part of an Islamic caliphate. Following this radicalization, and the tightening of the jihad's relationship with Iran, Hamas concluded that the jihad wants to step into its shoes in Gaza. Following this decision, it is Hamas who, in our estimation, handed over to Israel the head of the jihad in the West Bank about six months ago, the handover which led to Operation Alot Hashachar, in which the IDF eliminated most of the jihad leadership in the Gaza Strip. We note that last week we reported on the meeting of Jihad leader Nakhallah with the Iranian Foreign Minister in Beirut.

This confusion among the Palestinians means that information flows from the Palestinian bodies to Israel whether the Palestinian Authority announces the continuation of security coordination, or whether it announces that it is stopping it, as it did this week. Security coordination between Israel and factions in Fatah that control parts of the security mechanisms continue; This is why many people laughed this week when the Palestinian Authority announced that it was ending security coordination with Israel. It is possible that it will stop, but the information will probably continue to flow, subject to the interests of the Palestinian factions as described; This security reality will continue at least if the governmental chaos in the Palestinian territories continues. When might a third intifada break out? After Hamas Barghouti and Rajoub complete the prisoner deal with Israel, in which Barghouti wants to be released from prison at the request of Hamas; As long as the deal is not completed, Hamas has another reason not to warm up the situation with Israel because it really wants a prisoner deal; As we exclusively reported here about three weeks ago, the talks regarding the deal that will bring Oron Shaul and Hadar Goldin home are progressing. The release of prisoners will add points to Hamas in the Palestinian public, and this may open a way for it to take control of Ramallah in cooperation with Rajoub and Barghouti and their soldiers in the security apparatus.

It should be said that the street of Jihad does not consist only of the political supporters of Jihad, since all Palestinians are affected by what is happening, for example, in Jenin, and they obey the call of Jihad to intervene and strike Israel. This is how the massacre happened at the weekend in Neve Ya'akov, as well as the attack in the City of David on Saturday. If there is a change in the Palestinian government, and Hamas and Fatah do cooperate in the new government after Abu Mazen, then the way to a third intifada may be paved.