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22.09.2025

The Headline

Arab source: Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya was slightly wounded and is in Turkey; al-Hayya in connection with the Hamas delegation in Cairo:

The organization is ready for any Israeli/American demand: for a comprehensive deal, for a partial American guarantee, for disarmament and relinquishment of power, for the transfer of its weapons to the Arab troika, for permanent dialogue on the width of the security zone.

The Egyptian warnings to Israel, not to harm Hamas members on its soil, are not just political declarations but are targeted warnings that concern the Hamas delegation that is currently in Cairo, discussing a new deal with Egyptian intelligence. This is not a new delegation, but rather the organization's delegation that is in continuous dialogue with Egyptian intelligence, and now, after the IDF attack on Doha, it is taking on additional importance and significance; from what emerges from the Arab source, Hamas leader Al-Hayya, who was slightly injured (and attended his son's funeral despite the reports that he was absent from the funeral), is currently leading the delegation in Cairo, from his residence in Turkey. According to the source, the organization is ready for all of Israel's (and President Trump's) demands; in a military sense, the organization is in collapse, and cannot wage war against Israel, except for a guerrilla war, "launch and run." In an ideological sense, Hamas is still strong and is even strengthening, especially in the West Bank, and despite the reports, its position is stable in the Gaza Strip as well, and even if it ceases to exist militarily, its ideological prosperity will prevent its destruction. Egypt and Turkey will begin a naval exercise this week, which implies two joint warnings towards Israel: one regarding the pressure on Israel to complete the The negotiations and ending the war, and the second regarding the flotilla that is currently on its way to Gaza, in two groups of boats. See today in the main story.

The Israeli Palestinian Post

Here are the Hamas agreements, according to the Arab source: Hamas agrees to a comprehensive deal. The organization reiterates the demand, which is acceptable to Israel, for the IDF to withdraw from city centres, and a discussion on the width of the security zone, a width that will remain until the negotiations are completed, after which there will be a full withdrawal (which is also apparently subject to negotiations, for example, a gradual withdrawal). The organization agrees that the IDF will remain in Philadelphi (at least until the negotiations are completed, and we do not know what its position is regarding the axis in a final agreement). The organization will be flexible regarding the identity of the prisoners and the key to their release. The organization will release hostages already during the negotiations. The US will guarantee that the war will not be renewed if the negotiations continue. In this sense, Hamas has given up its fundamental demand for a guarantee to end the war. Hamas will agree to hand over its weapons to the troika of Arab countries (Egypt, Qatar, the Emirates) and will transfer power in the Gaza Strip to the new body that the troika will establish.

In the past, Hamas insisted on an Israeli commitment to end the war with an American guarantee. Following the IDF's actions in Gaza City, especially in the last two weeks, the organization has, as stated, also given up on this demand, and is now ready for an American guarantee, according to which President Trump commits that negotiations between Israel and Hamas will continue until an agreement is reached. During the negotiations, Hamas agrees, according to the Arab source, to release hostages. The American guarantee is the most limited in its meaning since the beginning of the war and was first proposed by President Biden (to continue the ceasefire if the negotiations continue).

It now appears that Khalil al-Hayya participated in the first part of the funeral of his son who was killed in an IDF attack in Doha. Al-Hayya was not in the mourning procession, but at the beginning of the ceremony, according to the source, he led a prayer in the mosque, a prayer after which the mourning procession began in which he was not present. We do not know if one of the reasons for his failure to participate in the mourning procession was the severity of his injury, which according to the source is a minor injury. In our assessment, it is possible that the injury is moderate, but it is probably not a life-threatening injury. We do not know any details about the nature of his injury.

In January 2024, we reported exclusively for the first time that Hamas is ready to disarm and relinquish power in Gaza; the main differences in the war scene since then and today are 1. The Turkish front was born because of the extension of the war, and following the fall of Iran, into this void left by Iran, Turkey entered, apparently according to a pre-arranged plan that it had 2. Kidnappers who have been killed since then and who have been physically and mentally harmed 3. Further softening of Hamas positions, which may greatly add to Israeli deterrence. However, Hamas' key positions: giving up weapons and power, have remained the same since January 2024, but now the negotiations to achieve them will likely be easier, and the price demanded of Israel for their implementation will be lower.