The IDF is practicing the previous war: two divisions in the north, without practicing and updating warehouses, facing a new Middle East in which Saudi Arabia and Egypt are getting closer to Iran, which is taking over the Syrian army

עיתון בין אויבים

A newspaper among enemies

                                                                                                                    By Mati Cohen, tipp editor

In the military sense, the assassination of the Egyptian soldier in the lives of 3 IDF soldiers yesterday, is not related to the new coordination in the Middle East along the Saudi-Iran-Syria-Egypt axis. In the cultural sense, on the other hand, it coincides with Egypt's public attitude towards Israel. But has Israel become so accustomed to this attitude, and to the tension between the good military relations and the lousy public relations, to such an extent that even if Egypt's military attitude towards Israel deteriorates, and it approaches the public attitude, even then Israel will not notice it? Or maybe it will not want to notice it?

Yesterday's assassination of three IDF soldiers sheds light on the failures of the brigade where the incident occurred, but more than that, it provides another opportunity this week to look at the macro: Egypt's place in the new Middle East established by Iran.

Regarding the failures in the spatial division, beyond the fact that no warning was received from the fence, or perhaps it was received but not picked up, and the fact that no warning was received from the sand road, and no contact check was conducted in time, and no shots were heard in the war room, and above all it is unclear how a soldier and a female soldier were the observation team, while the procedure is three soldiers, with the option of two soldiers and a female soldier; One can ask without prejudice, is Egypt slowly moving towards the axis of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria, or does it remain committed to the peace agreement with Israel? This question is not completely accurate, because both movements can occur at the same time, but the essence of the question is completely clear: What is the process that is happening now in Egypt towards Israel? Our assessment is that Egypt is moving towards the Saudi Iranian axis but is carefully maintaining contact with the Israeli side.

Regarding the place of Egyptians in the new Middle East, we all hear the wooing of the Egyptian security establishment after Israel, which was unbearably damaged yesterday, but there is no need to be moved by the gesture; It does not obscure Egypt's recent moves to get closer to Iran, and it does not obscure Egyptian public hostility toward Israel, which is the deep cultural background that urges Egypt to continue on this path towards the Iran-Saudi-Syria axis.

It should be remembered that Saudi Arabia and Egypt have very large ground forces, which are equipped with advanced Western weapons. The Egyptians have almost 4000 tanks, more than a thousand of which are American Abrahams. Both countries have advanced and trained naval and air arms. Regarding Iran, the transfer of its forces through Iraq to Syria is not possible now in masses with a logistical rear, so it has found a solution: taking over an existing military skeleton – the Syrian army – which it is now strengthening, until it becomes (again) capable of confrontation with Israel. The transfer of advanced weapons to the Syrian army is much simpler than the transfer of similar equipment to Hezbollah, for example, and this is because Syria is a sovereign country, and its army is entitled to military procurement, which it can transfer through the country's airports and sea.

In this sense, the training conducted by the IDF is again, like the last Shield and Arrow war, the training of last year, just as the current war was the previous war; because if the Middle East described is indeed the Middle East that is taking place now in reality and it fundamentally changes the picture of forces In the region, then this year's training should include all the IDF's combat formations, according to the forces that will face them in the emerging new order. Such training does not include only two divisions in the north, but large and ultra-equipped ground forces. Such training should therefore include military training, including updating the composition of the equipment in the warehouses, i.e., increasing the ratio between equipment for ground maneuvers, and equipment for guerrilla warfare. And for those who say that this should be left to the judgment of the defense establishment, the answer will be that once it was already left to them, And Israel has almost reached the end of its path.

The US is not reading the new map in the Middle East either, now it is completely clear. Part of the American numbness could be heard in its clarification about a month ago that it is in Syria only to eradicate Daesh. America's clear allies Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and now also Jordan, Surely Oman, and even the Emirates, are moving towards Iran, yet America continues to sleep deeply. Israel is also not awake because, structurally, it is subject to American slumber, as it continues to wish that America would pull the chestnuts out of the fire for it and participate in the attack on Iran. This is why Israel does nothing to stop Iran, and it mostly continues to wait; This waiting led Israel to see Iran on the brink of three bombs. Netanyahu's far-fetched policy towards Iran in the last three decades, a policy of nothing but war, even meant that Israel during all this time did not try enough to develop a political dialogue with Iran, even though in our opinion it could have. Now it is almost lost, such a discourse will most likely no longer exist, and America will not come to our rescue either, and therefore Israel must decide whether it is ready to live in a nuclear balance, or not. Simple as it sounds.

America is losing its grip on the Middle East to such an extent that last week the commander of the naval force of the Revolutionary Guards warned it to evacuate its forces from the Persian Gulf, because according to him the only countries that have the right to guard the strategic area of ​​the Gulf are the countries that live on its shores. These things that were brought here last week heralded the establishment of an Iranian naval coalition in which Saudi Arabia, an ally of the US, is also a partner. Therefore, in essence, Iran's demand to vacate the Gulf is also Saudi Arabia's demand; Saudi Arabia will not say so explicitly, nor love that interpretation, but while it is part of the new Iranian venture, it is an unavoidable interpretation.