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01.02.2026

The Headline

Hamas will disarm but demands an achievement in the negotiations: implementation of the 2005 crossing agreement and withdrawal

Israel demands a new agreement for Rafah, in which the number of people entering (only refugees) will be half the number of people leaving

The IDF is currently demanding that the yellow line remain, but it is still unclear whether this will also be Israel's opening position in the negotiations. Another Israeli opening position concerns the rate of people entering Gaza at the Rafah crossing; the Israeli demand is that the number of people entering Gaza, which according to Israel will only be from among the refugees who fled Gaza when the war began, will not exceed half the number of people leaving. This position essentially expresses a demand that Hamas implement Netanyahu and Trump's transfer plan, and the chances are zero. It is unclear whether this position expresses an Israeli striving towards a balance between the number of people leaving and the number entering the Strip, that is, an opening position for bargaining that will end in equality between the rate of people entering and the rate of people leaving the Strip, or whether it is a stick that Israel will retroactively get stuck in the wheels of negotiations, in a way that will lead to the IDF returning to war, in order to eradicate Hamas. Hamas is demanding the implementation of the 2005 crossings agreement, according to which the Palestinian Authority will govern the Rafah crossing, under the supervision of European countries, and the IDF's remote supervision using cameras; in its current demand, Israel is demanding close supervision, that is, from a pavilion adjacent to the crossing. According to the 2005 agreement, those leaving and entering will be at the discretion of the PA, subject to the European supervision agreement and the Israeli remote supervision agreement. According to a Palestinian source, Hamas told Ramallah that at the end of the negotiations and if they are successful and an agreement is signed between the two parties, it will disarm. In our assessment, Hamas will also then demand symbolic control of Gaza, as well as a symbolic number of personal weapons, in accordance with Turkey's position. Turkey is trying to bring Iran to the negotiating table with the US, so that Turkey can gain a military presence in Gaza, with American consent, and on the Israeli condition that Iran be defeated before any such Turkish move. What complicates the picture a little more was British Prime Minister Starmer's report this week about a rapprochement between England and China. See today's main story; and while all eyes are on Gaza, the West Bank continues to boil, and according to a Palestinian source, it is close to exploding, following actions by settlers against Palestinians.

The Israeli Palestinian Post

Today, the Rafah crossing will open, but Israel will not allow more people to enter the Strip than half the number of people leaving the Strip. In addition, Israel will not allow people to enter the Strip who are not among the refugees who fled Gaza during the war. In our assessment, the negotiations on phase two will not progress beyond presenting initial positions, before the crisis with Iran is resolved, mediated by Turkey. The crisis with Iran was born out of the American demand to involve Turkey in the new Gaza Strip, including the participation of a small Turkish military force to train the Palestinian force that will protect the new government on behalf of the Palestinian Authority in the Strip. Benjamin Netanyahu demanded that Iran be defeated before that, and now Turkey, as the main beneficiary of Trump and Netanyahu's rotational exercise (see our report on this last week), is trying to bring the parties to an agreement, and to win Erdogan's demand to send a military force to the Strip. We will recall that a Turkish force is already in Jordan and is training a Palestinian force that will enter the West Bank after its training.

All eyes are now on the Gaza Strip and Iran, but a Palestinian source in Ramallah warns that the West Bank is on the eve of an uprising, following actions by settlers against Palestinians. We have A video filmed late last year in the Hebron area shows young men beating a Palestinian flock of sheep and lambs with planks, in a manner that endangers their health and lives. Since, to the best of our knowledge, the young men in the video are not completely identified as settlers, and there is no clear testimony from the owners of the flock, we are not publishing the video. However, tensions in the West Bank are now approaching a peak, bringing a social and even military explosion closer.