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25.01.2026

The Headline

The distracting (political) exercise that will enlarge the government but greatly diminish Israel is:

The US will overwhelm Iran, Israel will agree in exchange for a Turkish presence in Gaza; the IDF opposes

The spectacle of the US buildup of forces against Iran is part of the agreement (and diversion) reached between Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump (and which was apparently finalized during their meeting about three weeks ago), to begin phase two of the negotiations in Gaza (see our exclusive report on this in issue 235), and mainly to include Turkey in the process, which the American president calls "peace achieved in the Middle East after 3,000 years." According to an important Israeli source, the agreement is a move to distract the Israeli public from Turkey's political and military involvement in the Gaza Strip, mainly against the backdrop of the broad opposition to it in the security establishment. Beyond Turkey's political presence, which has already been implemented when it was attached to the leadership of the Gaza Strip, the agreement between Netanyahu and Trump also brings about a Turkish military presence on Israel's borders; currently, the Turkish military presence is only in Jordan, with a Turkish army force training in the Jordanian kingdom a Palestinian force that will be integrated into the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank upon completion of its training; another Turkish force will also enter the Gaza Strip, with Netanyahu's consent, after the latest abductee, Ran Gueili, is returned to Israel. According to an important Palestinian source, this force is intended to train a Palestinian force that, upon completion of its training, will maintain the new government in the Gaza Strip; the force will also include forces that are now part of the Hamas organization. In the past, we exclusively reported that Turkey wants Hamas to have a presence, even if only symbolic, in the new government in the Gaza Strip. The Turkish force for the Gaza Strip will enter the Gaza Strip, unless there is widespread public opposition in Israel, which Trump and Netanyahu are now trying to distract with the "Iran for Turkey" exercise.

By Meir Jurno, our military and security commentator

A source close to Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir expressed firm opposition to the current Phase II conditions, including the danger of Turkey's political and military presence in the Gaza operation; Turkish patronage of Hamas and Hezbollah brings the two organizations back to life, and especially their central idea, the destruction of Israel. The source added that there should be no return to the October 6 lines, and that the new border line with the Gaza Strip must remain the yellow line, in a way that will allow the IDF to advance any future threat. Benjamin Netanyahu is no longer ignoring Turkey's rapid rise as a regional power that threatens (now openly) Israel, and he has already expressed this issue when he suggested that Turkey forget about its dreams of empire; Despite this, Netanyahu has yielded to Donald Trump's demand that Turkey take a substantial military and political role in the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, and especially in the establishment of a new order in the Middle East. Not only has he yielded, but he has wrapped his surrender in a victory over Iran, which is already defeated. Since Turkey's transformation, with the encouragement of the US, into a central player against Israel, is likely to bring Netanyahu to his political end, and thus Trump's dreams of a first peace in the Middle East after 3,000 years of war, to an end, in our assessment, the joint move by Netanyahu and Trump against Iran was born, after which Netanyahu will be able to claim that his victory was complete when he defeated Iran, without emphasizing the current reality in which Iran no longer threatens Israel in the way it threatened it on October 7; Netanyahu may be counting on the Israeli public not to remember that the IDF defeated Iran almost terminally, and that the threat from Turkey, which arose as a result of the extension of the war that the Netanyahu government led, is the real threat. The current one, especially if Iran transfers nuclear technology to Turkey, and its progress in assembling a nuclear warhead on a ballistic missile.

Matti Cohen adds: About three weeks ago, as far as we know, Israel intended to launch a large-scale military operation against Hezbollah in all of Lebanon, and not just in the south. When the uprising in Iran began, Netanyahu stopped the move, shortly before it was implemented. Our assessment now is that the move against Hezbollah, with the consent of the US, was part of the broader move against Iran, and when the uprising broke out, Donald Trump ordered Netanyahu to stop the operation against Hezbollah, in order to prevent the Iranian regime from relying on American and Israeli hostility towards Iran, and to use the motive to divert the anger of the insurgents away from it.