www.tipp.co.il
03.08.2025
עיתון בין אויבים
A newspaper among enemies
Commentary: Following the Turkish Foreign Minister's meeting with Hamas over the weekend, and the organization's hardening of positions
The choices now: Guerrilla war on the Gaza Strip, or an international conference to divide influence in the Middle East
Over the weekend, the Turkish Foreign Minister met with a delegation from Hamas' Shura Council. The day after the meeting, a statement was issued by President Erdogan, proposing the establishment of a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital. In Turkey, it is known that the chance that the people of Israel will give up a tile in Jerusalem is equal to the chance that the Turkish people will give up Istanbul/Constantinople; Turkey is nevertheless giving up Jerusalem on behalf of Israel, mainly to sharpen its new presence as the leader of an Islamic axis in the Middle East. On the same day that Erdogan's announcement was published, Hamas said two things in an unofficial statement: 1. That it will not lay down its weapons as a result of negotiations with Israel (as it previously pledged to the US and as it proposed to Israel, see our exclusive report from January 2024 in the Today's Diary section) 2. That it will lay down its weapons only after a Palestinian state is established with Jerusalem as its capital. The second clause in Hamas's statements is identical to Erdogan's, and our assessment is that the parties at the Fidan-Hamas meeting the previous day coordinated the declarations. Turkey's involvement in Syria, and its control of al-Sha'ra, which largely controls the murderous gangs that have been threatening Israel in recent weeks, as well as its involvement with Hamas, which appears for the time being to lead to the strengthening of Hamas's position in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, greatly complicates the reality of the war, removes it from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and places it in the regional arena. The Israeli government can choose between a move against Hamas in Gaza, which could develop into a regional war, or by striving for an international conference that will leverage the fears of war to reach a comprehensive solution for the distribution of influence in the Middle East.
By Mati Cohen
Hamas's deepening of the conflict, following the support it receives from Turkey, could lead Israel to expand the war in Gaza. This will indeed be another war of no choice, especially since dozens of Israeli hostages are still being held in Gaza, but it will still be a guerrilla war that is not suitable for an organized army, even if the IDF has fought and is fighting in guerrilla arenas since the days of the fidayeen.
Since October 7, Israel has addressed the war's perpetrators: Iran, Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas; but Israel has not addressed the new presence that the war has created: Turkey's new presence as being deeply involved in the political and military processes in the Middle East. The meeting between Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan and Hamas on Friday, and its results, which indicate coordination between Turkey and Hamas, oblige Israel to address the new reality and Turkey as a fundamental political and military factor for the first time, and to adapt the discourse between the countries to its new context. If the fanatic Israeli government avoids this and goes to war in Gaza, Turkey could push al-Sha'ra and its gangs into the cauldron, and Hamas in Gaza and in the West Bank; Hezbollah may also feel the Turkish tailwind and wake up. Such an event could lead to a regional war. On the other hand, a political, military, and intelligence discourse in the context between Turkey and Israel may pave the way for an international conference that will recognize the new reality created by Israel's war with Iran and its sympathizers.
A new Israeli attitude towards the Turkish presence in the Middle East arena, and its effects, may cause Israel to act in two arenas: 1. In the NATO arena, where Turkey's activity is seen as a fundamental violation of the organization's treaty not to escalate conflicts; 2. Striving for the convening of an international conference that will end the difficult and never-ending war and lead to a new Middle East controlled and managed by its powers. In this case, Israel would have to agree to the establishment of a Palestinian state, and in return, it would receive new recognition as a regional power that is entitled to security and prosperity within the violent domino game of the Middle East.