The discussions regarding the first phase of the ceasefire are the currently active discussions between Hamas and Israel, while regarding the second phase of the agreement, Hamas received a guarantee from Egypt, for the end of the war at the end of the two phases; Apparently the Egyptian guarantee is backed by the tacit consent of Donald Trump. According to our assessment, the separation between the first stage and the second stage is done to enable the signing of the agreement, with the assessment that its completion will allow reaching an agreement also on the fundamental disputes regarding the second stage. Hamas is trying to rekindle the fronts against Israel; He sent a greeting to his Muslim Brotherhood allies in Syria, led by Julani, and received a cold shoulder in response. An important Palestinian source told us that "the rebels in Syria now have important tasks, and they need peace with Israel, and the support of the West." In Lebanon, they are trying to organize the military force that will take control of the south of the country and at the same time threaten Israel, which fears that the Lebanese army will not be able to comply with UN Resolution 1701. At the beginning of 2025, the American envoy Hochstein will arrive in Lebanon again, to calm the spirits, but also to make it clear that the US will not allow Iran to finance or assist in the reconstruction of the south of the country. The US and Israel fear that Iran wants to renew its involvement in Lebanon through the reconstruction of the south, mainly considering the assumption that if Iran does not do so, Turkey will take its place in the country (see today's expansion in the main story).

By Mati Cohen

A new attempt to bring about the signing of the cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas, through separate discussions regarding phase one and phase two. Regarding the second phase, the Palestinians were given an Egyptian guarantee, apparently backed by the tacit agreement of the American president-elect Trump, according to which at the end of the second phase the war will stop. We reported on the Egyptian guarantee here in the past, exclusively.

If the discussions regarding the first part go well, it is possible that Hamas will be satisfied with the Egyptian/American guarantee. We do not know if the guarantee includes an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, alongside the commitment to end the war. This new structure of the discussions therefore leaves on the table only the disputes regarding phase one. A Palestinian source said at the end of the week that Israel is demanding the release of soldiers already in Phase I (but did not specify whether it is only female soldiers or also male soldiers), while Hamas is willing to agree to this on the condition that Israel accepts its demand regarding a key mass for the release of Palestinian security prisoners in exchange for every Israeli in their hands, as well as for the release of serious murderers, led by Marwan Barghouti.

The negotiations between Israel and Hamas are taking place when it has a great influence on the other arenas, in most of which the fire has already ceased. The negotiations affect the Houthi front, who may get a ladder to get off the tree of launching missiles towards Israel, although there is no certainty that the Houthis will stop the launches, with the signing of the cease-fire in Gaza; it is very possible that they will continue and condition the cessation of missile firing on a complete cessation of the war, and in Israel's withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. And they may even go further. The Houthis are a mystery. Recall that we reported here in May 2023, that the Houthis joined the command room of the war against Israel established by Iran and Hezbollah, and we also reported in the same article that the Houthis would launch missiles at Israel. Unfortunately, the security system in Israel did not increase its response to the Houthi threat following our report.

The continuation of the war in Gaza also affects the scene in Lebanon, where it is feared that Israel will not withdraw at the end of the 60 days since the ceasefire came into effect, and it will further extend its military presence in the country.  Israel fears that the Lebanese army will not succeed in enforcing UN Resolution 1701 and will not prevent Hezbollah from sneaking back to the border line and will not collect Hezbollah's weapons in southern Lebanon. Likewise, the US, but also Israel, are making efforts to prevent Iran's participation in the reconstruction of southern Lebanon, to prevent the renewal of Iran's involvement in Lebanon. The Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, the Shiite Nabih Berri, complained that Israel is violating the cease-fire agreement, and in response, It was written in the Iranian press that the American envoy Hochstein will visit Lebanon at the beginning of 2025. The prolongation of the war in Gaza gives some validity to the threats coming from Lebanon, if Israel does not withdraw from the country at the end of the 60 days.

The prolongation of the war in Gaza also affects the emergence of new arenas and alliances in the Middle East. In the past we wrote about the Turkish Egyptian danger, today an even more dangerous possibility for Israel has been added to this alliance. See an expansion on this today in the main story.