Hamas intends to remain in power, after appointing Barghouti from Fatah as a fig leaf. The US will not give Hamas a guarantee to end the war, thus acknowledging its mistake that led to the collapse of the previous negotiations. As we reported, the ceasefire will be the platform for negotiations on the cessation of the war: there will be a de facto cessation of the war, and a de jure continuation.

 By Mati Cohen

According to a senior Palestinian security source in Ramallah, in the current agreement a smaller than expected number of live abductees will be released in the first phase, the reason for this: Hamas wants to keep secret the places where the abductees are imprisoned, and during the negotiations it will demand to stop aerial surveillance by the IDF and the world's armies.

Hamas intends to remain in power alongside Marwan Barghouti, whom it intends to appoint to head the Gaza Strip on behalf of the Palestinian Authority. This is why Hamas insists on the release of two prisoners, whose release is considered a red line for him: Marwan Barghouti and Hassan Salame, both murderers who are sentenced together to more than fifty life sentences and many Israelis killed by them. A senior Palestinian source in Ramallah told us that Barghouti will be the "fig leaf" of Hamas in Gaza, and later, with the intent of the alliance made between the two (and which we previously reported here), to take over the PLO, the legal representation of the Palestinian people. Hamas intends to rearrange the balance of power in the PLO, inspired by the results of the Palestinian parliamentary elections in 2006 in which it won a majority. In this case, in the Hamas PLO, most of the seats will be its own, and Fatah will be given between 20-30 percent of the seats. Hamas is convinced that the support it will receive from the Palestinian public after the war allows it to fulfill this vision.

Faduwa, the wife of Marwan Barghouti, as we reported last week, is the one who is now representing her husband in the cooperation he entered into with Hamas. As mentioned, the cease-fire will be a platform for negotiations to end the war: the war will stop de facto but will continue de jure until a full agreement, if there is one. Israel will retain the option of returning to military maneuvers, should Hamas violate the agreement, or the negotiations reach an impasse. America will not give Hamas a guarantee to end the war, thereby admitting its mistake on the eve of signing the previous agreement; Just before he gave his consent in the previous negotiations, Netanyahu heard of a Saudi report according to which the US gave Hamas a guarantee to end the war, and withdrew his agreement to obscure the end of the war, in the spirit of our report here, i.e. its de facto end and de jure continuation, when the negotiations constitute an agreed upon platform for a summary negotiation.

The expected agreement may lead to an end to Hezbollah's attacks in the north, in a way that will allow for negotiations regarding the new reality that will prevail on the Israel-Lebanon border. In our estimation, the US is operating in parallel with the arena in Gaza, in two additional arenas: Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Europe, Iran and Hezbollah, in such a way that alongside an agreement it strives for at the Israel-Lebanon border, the Americans will try to obtain a new nuclear agreement that Iran is seeking. In our estimation, there are now two main goals at the basis of the American interest in the Middle East, one is to put Saudi Arabia at the head of a new political power in the Middle East, in such a way that it will lead on the one hand reconciliation with Israel, and on the other hand lead the axis of moderate countries in the Middle East against Iran. In this sense, Israel will be Part of the Saudi-Egyptian political axis according to the American vision, and not a central and main ally of the US in the Middle East. This relationship will express, on the one hand, the identity of values ​​between the US and Israel, and the American commitment to the Jewish people and the State of Israel, but in a political sense, Israel's position will fall from the status it had before the Iron Swords War.