Europe and the United States look today at the defeat of Ukraine, like the view given by the two continents to Poland on September 1, 1939. In both cases, a mighty army invaded a country that has no real military power. In 1939 Poland used horses and swords against a mechanized and cruel army, and in 2022 Ukraine seeks to distribute rifles to civilians, against tanks, attack helicopters and missiles, of an elaborate and organized army. In both cases Europe and the United States did not forcibly stop the invasion, although the Nazi invasion of Poland led Britain and France to declare war on Germany, and so, World War II began, while now the Western response is much more moderate, perhaps too moderate.

In this context of a seemingly hopeless struggle, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry today publishes the story of heroism that a small number of Ukrainians had in 1918, in the battle for the city of Kroty. 4000 Russian soldiers of the newly founded Red Army, tried to occupy the city, on their way to Kiev; In front of them then stood 400 Ukrainian citizens with guns. In that battle, Ukraine managed to defend its independence, it is doubtful that it will succeed this time as well.

Russia is not far from Kiev at this time, and is pressuring the city to overthrow it, thus overthrowing the rest of Ukraine's cities, and bringing about a rapid collapse of the country, but Putin's goal is apparently far broader than the occupation of Ukraine: on the one hand he is trying to push NATO out of the Russian mainland, and is placing Ukraine as a buffer, and on the other hand he is opening a convenient path to the Mediterranean, when the Crimea which he conquered in 2014 is the great naval base for this purpose. In such a reality, occupied Ukraine will no longer be able to reduce the maneuvering space of Russian ships in the Black Sea.

If this analysis is correct, the day is near when Putin will demand from Turkey a more favorable arrangement for Russian ships to cross the Bosphorus, and immediately after setting his terms for the Turkish president, he will expand his ports in Syria, to threaten both Turkey and Europe. Putin will have a hard time doing all this alone, and our assumption is that he will want to express agreements he has with China. Chinese joining Putin's move means a world war. It is doubtful that China will go that far.